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Humala's Win in Peru Consolidates Gains for Left, More Independent and Democratic South America, CEPR Co-Director Says

Center for Economic and Policy Research, June 5, 2011


Washington, D.C. - Ollanta Humala's apparent presidential electoral victory in Peru represents a consolidation of the gains made by left-leaning leaders in South America over the past decade, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) Co-Director Mark Weisbrot said today.

"Democracy, national and regional independence, and economic and social progress have gone hand-in-hand with South America's leftward political shift over the past decade," said Weisbrot. "This election continues these trends, for sure."

As of late Sunday night, quick counts from two firms, Ipsos- Apoyo and Datum Internacional, had Humala ahead with over 51 percent of the vote, compared to less than 49 percent for his opponent, Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of Peru's former authoritarian president Alberto Fujimori. Exit polls showed Humala ahead by over five points.

News of Humala's victory was welcomed by well-known politicians from across the political spectrum. Author and politician Mario Vargas Llosa, a well-known conservative, said that Humala's win "saved democracy," while former president Alejandro Toledo said, "It's the hour of reconciliation. The people have won, democracy has won, the memory of the people won. The people have opted for economic growth with social inclusion."

Although official Washington - outside of spokespersons for the far right - did not express a preference, it appears that the Obama administration favored Fujimori.

"This election result also represents another setback for the U.S. government's strategy of `containment and roll- back' in the region," said Weisbrot.

Weisbrot also noted that Peru's traditional elite lost this election because the previous two governments had failed to take the kinds of initiatives that other left governments in the region had done, despite record economic growth.

"Peru's growth did reduce poverty significantly," said Weisbrot. "But the government didn't deliver the kinds of gains that were seen in other countries in health care, education, minimum wages, public pensions, or social spending, as happened in Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil, and Venezuela."

* Source: CEPR-Newsletter, Center for Economic and Policy Research, June 5, 2011; http://www.cepr.net


El triunfo de Humala y el desarrollo del proceso electoral peruano **

SEGUN LOS PRIMEROS SONDEOS EL NACIONALISTA OLLANTA HUMALA HABRIA GANADO LA PRESIDENCIA DEL PERU CON CIERTA VENTAJA SOBRE LA CONSERVADORA KEIKO FUJIMORI.

MIENTRAS SE PREPARA UN ANALISIS SOBRE ESAS ELECCIONES ENVIAMOS ESTE ESPECIAL REPRODUCIENDO CRONOLOGICAMENTE LAS COLUMNAS DE ISAAC BIGIO DONDE FUE EXAMINANDO DESDE LONDRES LO QUE PODRIA PASAR EN SU PATRIA DE ORIGEN.

ALLI SE VE LA TESIS DE QUE ANTES DE LA PRIMERA VUELTA SI ES QUE LOS 'MODERADOS' NO LOGRASEN UNIRSE DARIAN PASO A UNA POLARIZACION ENTRE LA DERECHA 'DURA' Y LA CENTRO-IZQUIERDA.

LUEGO DE QUE SE DIERON ESOS RESULTADOS SE PLANTEO LA DIFICULTAD QUE TENDRIA KEIKO FUJIMORI DE GANAR EL BALOTAJE TENIENDO EN CUENTA DE UNA DIFERENCIA DE CASI 8 PUNTOS, DE LAS RESISTENCIA QUE ELLA PODRIA PRODUCIR EN ALGUNOS SECTORES LIBERALES Y DE QUE NUNCA ANTES EN LA HISTORIA EL GANADOR DE DOS PRIMERAS VUELTAS CONSECUTIVAS PUEDA PERDER LA VUELTA FINAL POR SEGUNDA VEZ.

ALLI SE VE COMO SE PRONOSTICA EL EVENTUAL GIRO HACIA EL 'CENTRO' DE AMBOS CANDIDATOS Y DE QUE EL NIVEL DE CONCESIONES HECHO POR HUMALA AL CENTRO Y LA DERECHA 'MODERADA' PODRIAN ABRIRLE LA VIA PARA EVITAR VETOS Y ACERCARSE A GANAR A SECTORES INTERMEDIOS.

HUMALA GANA LAS ELECCIONES CON 'TRAJE PRESTADO' BASANDOSE EN UN PROGRAMA DONDE SE COMPROMETE A MANTENER LA CONSTITUCION DE 1993, EL MODELO ECONOMICO Y EL TLC.

** Analysis Global, Newsletter, 06.06.2011


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