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Klischee in Gefahr

Zwei US-Institute relativieren "iranische Bedrohung". Versachlichung der Politik Washingtons gegenüber Teheran angeregt

Von Rainer Rupp *

Zwei Studien renommierter US-Institute [Nähere Informationen siehe im Kasten unten] erregen derzeit in Washington einiges Aufsehen. Die »Denkfabriken« New Yorker Ost-West-Institut und die Rand Corporation, die der US-Luftwaffe angegliedert ist, beschäftigen sich darin mit dem Verhältnis zum Iran. Insbesondere relativieren sie in den am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Arbeiten die seit Jahren behauptete »iranische Bedrohung«.

So kommt die Gruppe von US-amerikanischen und russischen Wissenschaftlern, Ingenieuren und Militärexperten in der Studie des Ost-West-Instituts zu dem Schluß, daß Teheran, selbst wenn es ein militärisches Atomprogramm hätte, technologisch noch mindestens fünf bis sechs Jahre brauchen würde, Nuklearwaffen und für deren Einsatz nötige Raketen zu bauen.

Kein Alarmismus

Demnach besteht zumindest kein Grund für alarmistische Hektik, die insbesondere von Israel, dem einzigen Atomwaffenstaat des Mittleren Ostens, verbreitet wird. Dessen Ministerpräsident Benjamin Netanjahu hatte noch zu Wochenbeginn bei seinem Antrittsbesuch in Washington dafür geworben, die Iran-Frage zum wichtigsten Punkt der US-Mittelostpolitik zu machen, also noch vor eine Lösung des Palästinakonfliktes zu setzen. Allerdings widersprach ihm diesbezüglich US-Präsident Barack Obama auf der Pressekonferenz am Montag, als er erklärte, erst die Zwei-Staaten-Lösung in Palästina werde dafür den Weg bereiten, Teherans Einfluß in der Region zu verringern und eine Lösung der Iran-Frage begünstigen.

In der 230 Seiten starken Studie der Rand Corporation werden insbesondere die Resultate einer bereits 2007 begonnenen Forschungsarbeit über die politischen, ökonomischen und militärischen Entwicklungen und Perspektiven in Iran präsentiert. Auch dieser Bericht entkräftet die bisher in den USA verbreiteten iranischen Bedrohungsszenarien. So wird beispielsweise sachlich festgestellt, daß »bedeutende Hürden und Barrieren« den Plänen der Teheraner Regierung im Wege stehen. Diese beständen in regionalen, ethnischen und religiösen Unterschieden in der Gesellschaftsstruktur des Landes. Außerdem verfüge Iran nur »über begrenzte, konventionelle militärische Kapazitäten« und sei außerdem »diplomatisch isoliert«.

Empfohlen wird eine Kursänderung in der Politik gegenüber Teheran. Statt, wie bisher, weiter zu versuchen, mit Hilfe von Agenten und verdeckten Operationen in Iran Unruhe zu stiften, was zu nichts führe, sollte Washington Schnittstellen für gemeinsame Interessen beider Seiten suchen, zum Beispiel beim Thema Afghanistan. Dabei dürften die seit einiger Zeit von US- und NATO-Strategen angestellten Überlegungen eine Rolle spielen, Iran als Transitkorridor zur logistischen Unterstützung des Kriegs in Afghanistan einzubeziehen. So könnte die zunehmend unsicherere Route durch Pakistan entlastet werden.

Zugleich empfiehlt die Rand-Studie, die »manchmal aggressive, religiös eingefärbte Rhetorik« der Regierenden in Teheran nicht auf die Goldwaage zu legen und statt dessen die iranische Führung an ihren Handlungen zu messen. Deren Außenpolitik sei nämlich von dem legitimen Ziel bestimmt, die territoriale Integrität des Landes zu erhalten und das Überleben Irans als Islamische Republik zu sichern - und nicht von dem Wunsch, Ideologie zu exportieren, so der Bericht. Auch die im Westen weit verbreitete Ansicht, daß militante Bewegungen wie Hisbollah und Hamas oder andere, gegen Israel und die USA agierende Gruppen in Irak direkt von Teheran kontrolliert würden, stimme nicht. Iran habe »nur begrenzten Einfluß« auf diese Organisationen.

Raketenschirm unsinnig Die Studie des Ost-West-Institut mit dem Titel »Iran's Nuclear and Missile Potential« (Irans Atom- und Raketenpotential) kommt zudem zu dem Schluß, daß das von der Bush-Administration für Polen und Tschechien geplante, angeblich gegen die iranische Bedrohung gerichtete ballistische Raketenabwehrsystem unsinnig ist. Außerdem - so heißt es in dem Bericht weiter - sei ein iranischer Angriff höchst unwahrscheinlich, da mit dem dann erfolgenden Gegenschlag die Islamische Republik total zerstört würde.

* Aus: junge Welt, 22. Mai 2009

U.S. Strategy Should Avoid Inflating Iran's Role in Middle East Instability, Exploit Constraints on Iranian Power and Seek Areas of Engagement

Iran's rise as a regional power presents a key foreign policy and security challenge to the United States, but its reach may be more limited than Western conventional wisdom suggests, according to a RAND Corporation study issued today.

U.S. strategy must recognize Iran's role as an influential, but not omnipotent, player in the Middle East and work to exploit existing barriers to Iran's harmful activities, while simultaneously seeking areas of engagement, the study finds.

The study by RAND, a non-profit research organization, finds that a Cold-War-style containment approach mischaracterizes the threat from Iran, risking missed opportunities and potentially damaging other U.S. interests in the region. A combination of containment and engagement is more likely to succeed.

The report, "Dangerous But Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East," is an in-depth survey of the strategic challenges posed by Iran, as well as limitations to its power projection.

According to the authors, the Islamic Republic does not seek territorial aggrandizement or, despite its rhetoric, the imposition of its revolutionary ideology onto neighboring Middle Eastern states. Instead, the authors find that Tehran feeds off longstanding grievances with the status quo, particularly in the Arab world, often playing the role of "arsonist and fireman" to exaggerate its clout in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq.

Specifically, the report focuses on four key areas: the Iranian regime's underlying perception of itself in the world as a regional and even global power; its conventional military buildup and aspirations for asymmetric warfare; its support for militant non-state organizations in Iraq and Lebanon; and Tehran's ability to exploit pan-Arab causes, such as Palestine, and anti-Western sentiment.

"Iranian power projection and ambitions in the Middle East are among the most pressing foreign policy issues facing the United States," said Frederic Wehrey, the report's lead author and a senior policy analyst at RAND. "But Tehran's aspirations are circumscribed by barriers in the regional system it is trying to influence, as well as its own domestic disarray, limited conventional capacity, and frequent strategic missteps."

The report finds that Iranian power faces serious liabilities that the United States can exploit. Despite its outward assertiveness and revolutionary rhetoric, the regime's strategic calculus is tempered by some pragmatic tendencies. Key aspects of the Islamic Republic's developing military capabilities, particularly ballistic missiles and naval tactics, increasingly threaten U.S. and allied interests. Yet its large conventional forces are structurally weak, suffer from unrealistic training, and require considerable resources.

Tehran's close relationships with so-called "proxy" groups like Hamas and Hizballah do not necessarily translate into direct Iranian control over their activities. And while Iran has at times been successful in exploiting Arab popular opinion on Palestine and the nuclear issue, it has often overplayed its hand, provoking sharp criticism in the Arab media, the study finds.

To exploit these limitations on Iranian power, the authors recommend a new approach that integrates elements of engagement and containment. This includes:
  • Applying increased multilateral pressure on Iran's nuclear ambitions while deescalating unilateral U.S. pressure on Iran;
  • Pursuing bilateral U.S.-Iranian dialogues in areas of common interest, such as stability in Iraq and Afghanistan, narcotics trafficking, and humanitarian crises
  • Issuing unambiguous statements about U.S. interests and intentions in the region; and
  • Engaging in efforts to build a cooperative, multilateral regional security framework that is simultaneously inclusive of Iran and sensitive to the needs of U.S. friends and allies in the region.
Other authors of the study are David E. Thaler, Nora Bensahel, Kim Cragin, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Nadia Oweidat, and Jennifer Li of RAND, and Jerrold D. Green of the Pacific Council on International Policy.

The report, "Dangerous But Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East," is available at www.rand.org.

The study was prepared by RAND Project AIR FORCE, a federally funded research and development center for studies and analysis aimed at providing independent policy alternatives for the U.S. Air Force.

Source: www.rand.org

Summary

Iranian power projection and regional ambitions are among the most pressing foreign policy challenges facing the United States. U.S. observers of the Islamic Republic, regardless of their political persuasion, have noted with alarm the country’s new assertiveness on the Middle Eastern stage, its buildup of conventional military capability, and its apparently inexorable drive for nuclear energy in defiance of international criticism. The challenges posed by the Islamic Republic are especially acute from the perspective of the USAF: Airpower will likely be the military instrument of “first resort” to project U.S. power into Iran’s unstable neighborhood, reassure allies, and dissuade Iran from aggression or adventurism. In the minds of Iranian policymakers, U.S. airpower has assumed a similar prominence. Tehran’s fear of encirclement and strangulation by the United States stems in large measure from the proximity of the USAF’s presence in neighboring states. And as evidenced by the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing, this proximity places USAF lives and assets at risk from asymmetric terrorist attacks and, increasingly, Iran’s ballistic missiles.

To accurately gauge the strategic challenges from Iran over a tento fifteen-year horizon, this study sought to assess the motivations of the Islamic Republic, not just its capabilities. This approach, although difficult given the complexities of the Iranian system, is critical in identifying potential sources of caution and pragmatism in Iran’s policy formulation. Our exploration of Iranian strategic thinking revealed that ideology and bravado frequently mask a preference for opportunism and realpolitik—the qualities that define “normal” state behavior. Similarly, when we canvassed Iran’s power projection options, we identified not only the extent of the threats posed by each but also their limitations and liabilities. In each case, we found significant barriers and buffers to Iran’s strategic reach rooted in both the regional geopolitics it is trying to influence and in its limited conventional military capacity, diplomatic isolation, and past strategic missteps. Similarly, tensions between the regime and Iranian society—segments of which have grown disenchanted with the Republic’s revolutionary ideals— can also act as a constraint on Iranian external behavior.

This leads to our conclusion that analogies to the Cold War are mistaken: The Islamic Republic does not seek territorial aggrandizement or even, despite its rhetoric, the forcible imposition of its revolutionary ideology onto neighboring states. Instead, it feeds off existing grievances with the status quo, particularly in the Arab world. Traditional containment options may actually create further opportunities for Tehran to exploit, thereby amplifying the very influence the United States is trying to mitigate. A more useful strategy, therefore, is one that exploits existing checks on Iran’s power and influence. These include the gap between its aspiration for asymmetric warfare capabilities and the reality of its rather limited conventional forces, disagreements between Iran and its militant “proxies,” and the potential for sharp criticism from Arab public opinion, which it has long sought to exploit. In addition, we recommend a new U.S. approach to Iran that integrates elements of engagement and containment while de-escalating unilateral U.S. pressure on Tehran and applying increased multilateral pressure against its nuclear ambitions. The analyses that informed these conclusions also yielded the following insights for U.S. planners and strategists concerning Iran’s strategic culture, conventional military, ties to Islamist groups, and ability to influence Arab public opinion.

Assertiveness and Caution Define Iran’s Strategic Culture

Our assessment of Iranian leadership dynamics, threat perception, and regional strategy reveals competing tendencies toward adventurism and pragmatism. This stems from a number of factors.

Many within the current regime appear to view Iran as an indispensable regional power, but not necessarily a revolutionary hegemon. There is the further belief that the Islamic Republic is a model for Islamic enlightenment everywhere and the preeminent Islamic state in the region, providing a geopolitical bridge between Asia and the Middle East. As a result of these perceived attributes, the Iranian leadership has shown a marked tendency not only to push for a greater role in regional affairs but also to exaggerate Iran’s strategic profile on the world stage.

Yet it does not follow that Iran is currently an expansionist, revolutionary state. Its revolutionary ideology has certainly featured prominently in the rhetoric of its officials. However, the record of Iranian actions suggests that these views should be more accurately regarded as the vocabulary of Iranian foreign policy rather than its determinant. Nationalism, sovereignty, and regime survival are the more fundamental drivers of Iran’s external behavior. For example, even in Shi’itedominated Iraq, Iran is not seeking to export its revolutionary goals, despite the fact that it would ultimately prefer clerical rule as a final outcome. Today, many officials in Tehran see the United States as an anti–status quo, revolutionary power seeking to reshape the Middle East by exporting secularism, democracy, and, more recently, sectarianism. (See pp. 8–14.)

The Iranian threat perception blurs internal and external concerns. The regime has a marked tendency to conflate domestic instability with external meddling. Although the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq eliminated Iran’s most serious regional adversaries, it still faces serious threats with the potential to wreak internal havoc. The spread of crime, weapons, and sectarian tensions from Iraq has animated ethnic activists in the provinces of Kordestan and Khuzestan (which border Iraq) and even in the eastern province of Baluchestan. These concerns have informed Iran’s trilateral cooperation with Syria and Turkey over the Kurds, its involvement in Iraq, and its decision to repatriate Afghan refugees. Leading clerics in Iran are also concerned about the theological challenge stemming from Shi’ite seminaries in Iraq. The learning centers of Najaf and Karbala long dominated Shi’ite discourse before being suppressed by Ba’athist regimes in Iraq; they are now reemerging with the potential to overshadow their Iranian counterparts in Qom. Finally, the Iranian leadership continues to perceive an existential threat posed to the Islamic Republic by the United States. This has made it highly sensitive to internal “interference” by the United States, particularly U.S. promotion of civil society and support for ethnic activists. One result of these fears has been an intensified crackdown on academic exchanges, social liberalism, and freedom of expression. In some cases, however, the regime is cynically exploiting this threat to bolster sagging popular support for the revolution. (See pp. 15–22.)

Regime factionalism affects external behavior. The Iranian system is beset with factionalism. Decisionmaking requires consensus; therefore, the number and complexity of these factions, combined with the individual reluctance and inability to make decisions, make it very difficult for the system to change course or to make significant decisions. Moreover, competing factions frequently use foreign policy issues to subvert or outmaneuver their rivals. This is particularly the case given the Revolutionary Guard’s efforts to consolidate its control over key domestic institutions. Also, the country’s worsening economic situation and increasing isolation over the nuclear issue has been a boon to factional opponents of President Ahmadinejad. Finally, the ongoing nuclear crisis may be at least partially fueled by internal maneuvering and bureaucratic competition. The net effect of these internal dynamics is an erratic, unpredictable, and frequently escalatory foreign policy. (See pp. 22–31.)

Iran Pursues a Multifaceted Regional Strategy Marked by Strengths and Limitations

As noted above, Iran views itself as a status quo power, preferring to assert a greater role for itself within the existing regional system rather than refashion that system according to its revolutionary vision. This has resulted in an ambitious, activist policy that hinges on three themes: deterrence and homeland defense, support for Islamist militant groups (both for symbolic reasons and as a retaliatory capability), and the currying of favor with publics in the Arab world to circumvent official hostility from other regimes in the region. Within each of these vectors are factors that both aid Iranian power and circumscribe it. (See pp. 31–37.)

Despite asymmetric doctrinal ambitions, Iran fields a weak conventional force. Iranian leaders have long trumpeted their shift to an asymmetric strategy of homeland defense that would exact intolerable costs from an invader. Much of this rests on notions of “mosaic defense,” partisan warfare, and popular mobilization of Basiji auxiliaries. On the whole, however, Iran’s military remains mired in conventional doctrine because of bureaucratic inertia in procurement and frequent infighting between the Revolutionary Guard and conventional forces. Most of Iran’s military equipment is out of date and poorly maintained, and its ground forces suffer from both personnel and equipment shortages. With its outdated aircraft, the Iranian Air Force, in particular, is no match for its neighbors and certainly not for U.S. airpower. (See pp. 58–64.)

Tehran’s layered and overlapping security structures, while useful for regime survivability, inhibit battlefield performance and reduce its capability to defend against external threats. This is reflected in the shortcomings evident in Iran’s nationwide exercises between the air, ground, and sea components of the Revolutionary Guard and regular forces. Although touted as “joint,” they usually devolve into organizational or service-specific training that appears highly scripted and choreographed. (See pp. 42–49.)

Some of Iran’s asymmetric capabilities are threatening. Because of its inferior conventional military forces, Iran’s defense doctrine, particularly its ability to deter aggressors, relies heavily on asymmetric warfare. Iranian strategists favor guerilla efforts that offer superior mobility, fighting morale, and popular support (e.g., the Hezbollah model in Lebanon) to counter a technologically superior conventional power— namely, the United States. At the high end of the spectrum, Iran has strong motives and means to develop advanced ballistic missile and nuclear weapon capabilities. This reliance on asymmetric capabilities can threaten Western interests in a variety of ways, particularly on the naval front. Iran’s mining capability, antiship cruise missiles, and innovative “swarming” tactics could impede maritime access in the Strait of Hormuz. (See pp. 64–70.)

The Revolutionary Guard also possesses a significant arsenal of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles that can reach the small Persian Gulf states, Afghanistan, Israel, eastern Turkey, and most of Saudi Arabia. Although these missiles are currently inaccurate and thus have limited military utility, improvements in their range, ability to carry unconventional warheads, and accuracy would significantly enhance Iran’s ability to threaten large population centers, economic infrastructure, and military bases. (See pp. 65–66.)

Iran has limited leverage over so-called proxy groups. To compensate for its conventional inferiority, Iran has long provided financial and military support to a variety of non-state Islamist groups. According to Revolutionary Guard doctrine, this “peripheral strategy” is intended to give strategic depth to Iran’s homeland defense, taking the fight deep into the enemy’s camp. In the cases of Hamas and Hezbollah, this strategy also buys Iran legitimacy among Arab publics who are frustrated with their regimes’ seemingly status quo approach. In effect, Tehran is being “more Arab than the Arabs” on issues such as Palestine. (See pp. 34–35 and pp. 84–86.)

In supporting major Shi’ite militant groups in Iraq and Lebanon, Tehran may expect a degree of reciprocity. This is particularly the case in the event of a U.S. strike, in which Iran might expect these groups to act unflinchingly as retaliatory agents. Yet this expectation may be misplaced. In Iraq, for instance, Iranian funds and military assistance are not essential to the survival of major Shi’ite political factions. Furthermore, some of these groups depend extensively on promoting an image of Iraqi nationalism for domestic support and thus prefer to maintain a degree of separation from Tehran. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s behavior is also informed by questions of domestic legitimacy; it has recently taken great pains to publicly distance itself from Iranian patronage. (pp. 86–123.)

Thus, in the event of conflict between the United States and Iran, the willingness of these groups to retaliate purely in the service of Tehran should not be assumed as automatic. Instead, they will carefully weigh the benefits of such actions against the risks to their own local agendas. Fractionalization and dissent may occur between pro- Iranian, anti-Iranian, and neutral factions. In some cases, Tehran may actively cultivate these splits, or the groups’ leadership may secretly subcontract attacks to a spin-off or “rogue element.” (See pp. 102–103 and p. 123.)

In short, it is best to conceive of Iran as exerting influence over its Shi’ite allies, but not control.

Iran has long sought to exploit Arab opinion, with mixed success. Aside from its support to non-state actors, Tehran also views Arab public opinion as an important vector for power projection. Tehran uses this strategy to exert pressure on unfriendly regimes and their Western allies. Employing both local media and its own transnational outlets (such as its Arabic-language satellite channel al-Alam), Iran has portrayed itself as a populist challenger of the status quo, a champion of the Palestinian cause, the patron of Hezbollah, and a beleaguered victim of Western double standards on the nuclear issue. Tehran’s belief that it can count on Arab public support and its attempts to be “more Arab than the Arabs” have resulted in frequently bellicose behavior. Indeed, Ahmadinejad’s antagonism toward Israel, defiance of U.S. pressure on the nuclear program, and populist charisma have earned him accolades from Arab publics. Iran’s appeal in the region skyrocketed following Hezbollah’s summer 2006 war with Israel. (See pp. 36–37 and pp. 129–130.)

However, our analysis of key media outlets and external polling reveals that popular Arab support for Iran remains a fickle strategic resource. In many cases, Arab opinion can rapidly swing from praise to condemnation based on events that are beyond Iran’s control or because of its own strategic missteps. Growing sectarian tensions in Iraq and the perception of Shi’ite political ascendancy in the region have spurred trepidation about Iran throughout the Arab world, particularly after the execution of Saddam Hussein. Arab governments in particular are concerned about Tehran’s ability to circumvent official diplomatic channels and appeal directly to ordinary Arabs, thereby threatening their own legitimacy. Among the Persian Gulf states, the Saudi and Bahraini governments fear Iran’s attempts to mobilize Shi’ite populations within their borders, particularly in the event of a U.S. strike. Yet our own field research on this issue reveals these worries are overblown: Most Shi’ite groups have worked peacefully within the system for political change and reject Iran as a political patron. (See pp. 131–144.)

Arab opinion on Iran is often split between publics and their regimes. Arab regimes fear Iran’s nuclear aspirations but are cognizant that its nuclear program is largely endorsed by their Arab publics as a critique of Western double standards and interference. Consequently, they are reticent about appearing too hostile to the prospect of an Iranian bomb lest their publics perceive this as tacit support for a U.S. strike. As a result, some Arab officials are exploiting Sunni Arab fears of Shi’ite ascendancy and sectarian strife in their media outlets to curry favor for what is essentially a classic balance-of-power strategy against Iran. Regarding a U.S. attack against Iran, both official and popular opinion is largely opposed, voicing deep concern about Iran’s retaliatory options and insufficient U.S. protection. These divergent and ambivalent views suggest caution for U.S. policymakers who would take Arab hostility toward Iran as de facto support for a U.S. attack or U.S. efforts to contain Iran through a Cold War–style bloc of Sunni states. (See pp. 144–151.)

Recommendations: Toward a New U.S. Policy Paradigm

Over the years, the United States has attempted a variety of approaches to address the Iranian challenge. To date, none has succeeded in making Iran less menacing to U.S. interests or more compliant with United Nations Security Council resolutions. The existing policy of creating a Cold War–like containment regime against Iran does not take into account features of the regional geopolitics and Iranian strategic culture discussed in this report. Although more appealing, policies relying only on bilateral engagement and/or hopes for some sort of grand bargain are equally unrealistic. And efforts to foment internal unrest and to play one faction off another within Iran are also likely to backfire because of limited U.S. understanding of Iran’s complex political landscape and the regime’s ability to manipulate such interference to its advantage. (See pp. 163–174.)

Given these shortcomings, we propose a different approach that involves a series of unilateral de-escalation measures by Washington and continued muscular multilateral efforts targeted at Iranian behaviors that are at odds with international norms (e.g., the nuclear issue and links to terrorism). Rather than a broad U.S.-based containment strategy, we suggest leveraging international pressure while unilaterally de-escalating U.S. rhetoric and policy toward Iran (essentially, reversing the traditional good cop/bad cop roles).2 Keeping the pressure components of this approach multilateral (including support from Russia and China) is critical because it helps deprive the Iranian leadership of the ability to deflect domestic critique by focusing discontent solely on the United States and the United Kingdom or other European Union powers. At the same time, the United States should avoid unilateral actions that would escalate conflict with Iran, as these are unlikely to work and are likely to exacerbate tensions significantly. Although no panacea, multilateral pressure—when combined with less-hostile U.S. rhetoric and policy—may prove more effective than past policies, at least in terms of the more limited aims regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That said, the likelihood of sustained support for this approach by Russia and China remains questionable. The specific components of this approach are as follows (see pp. 175–179):
  • Continue strengthening international sanctions and other financial pressures targeted on the nuclear issue, but avoid unilateral punitive measures that are not likely to generate broad support. Secondary sanctions are particularly counterproductive in maintaining European and international support for nuclearrelated sanctions in the United Nations.
  • Pursue bilateral dialogues related to areas of common interest, such as instability in Iraq and Afghanistan, narcotics trafficking, natural disaster relief, refugees, and other humanitarian crises. The United States should identify and exploit areas where genuine collaboration can be productive and profitable, without harboring expectations for broader diplomatic breakthroughs. These morelimited efforts should not be trivialized by over-hyping them. News of good works will spread on its own. That said, the United States should temper any expectation that engagement will produce dramatic results. However, even limited engagement efforts may improve the prospects for a broader dialogue and normalization process should political conditions improve.
  • Issue unambiguous statements about U.S. interests and intentions in the region, particularly regarding Iraq. These must be simple and easily understood, and the United States must stick to them long enough for them to be taken seriously. The United States should reinforce the Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq by clearly stating that it has no long-term interest in occupying Iraq or establishing a permanent military presence there. At the same time, the United States has a right to maintain a military presence in the region and to use force to protect its interests and those of its allies against threats from both state and non-state actors. These statements would underscore that U.S. military postures are for defensive purposes and to ensure stability, not to develop U.S. bases for launching attacks on regional neighbors (i.e., Iran).
  • Engage in efforts to build a multilateral regional security framework that is simultaneously inclusive of Iran and sensitive to the needs of the United States’ Arab friends and allies. The Arab states remember the exceedingly close U.S.-Iranian relations during the Pahlavi era and thus would be ambivalent at best about closer ties between Tehran and Washington. Yet despite these difficulties, the United States needs to aggressively pursue a broad-based multilateral regional security framework that would include Iran alongside Washington’s traditional Arab allies, as well as key international players like the European Union, Russia, and China. Such a structure would not be based on a specific threat (such as a collective security organization like NATO), but would provide an open-ended security forum where regional states could discuss and address a range of regional challenges (starting with more-consensual issues such as narcotics trafficking, responses to natural disasters, maritime security, and economic and energy development) and engage in military confidence-building measures. The model for such a forum could be a cooperative security organization like the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, where mutual threat perceptions are aired and conflict resolution measures pursued.
Although an inclusive multilateral security structure in the Persian Gulf region would take time to build, it would contribute more to regional stability over the long run than would continuing to rely solely on competitive, balance-of-power strategies designed to isolate Iran. Such narrow strategies are more likely to encourage, even reify, Iranian hegemonic aspirations than remove them. Furthermore, a U.S.-led “containment” of Iran is also unlikely to be sustainable among Persian Gulf states that desire to maintain cordial relations with Iran, if not active political and economic engagement.

** Source: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG781.sum.pdf


Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Potential. A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and Russian Technical Experts

EastWest Institute ***

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

The Iranian Programs

5.1 Four questions were posed in paragraph 1.1. On the basis of the analysis in this report, they can be answered as follows, subject to the caveats that have been registered.

5.2 What nuclear capability does Iran have today and what might it have in the future? Iran has been engaged in a serious nuclear program and has made steady progress. By February 2009 it had produced 1,010 kg of low-enriched uranium hexafl uoride. That would be enough for one bomb if it were converted to HEU. If Iran were to decide now to make use of this LEU to produce weapon-grade uranium, it would have to remove IAEA control and monitoring of the low-enriched uranium, and of the enrichment process, at the FEP. It would then be a matter of time — in the range of one to three years, according to the estimate given in chapter 2 — before a nuclear explosive device could be produced. It might take another fi ve years to produce a nuclear warhead that could be delivered by existing and future Iranian ballistic missiles.

5.3 What ballistic missile capability does Iran have today and what might it have in the future?
  • a. Iran has tested at least four liquid-propellant missiles. The Shahab-3 could deliver a payload of 1,000 kg to a distance of 1,100 km. In February 2009 Iran used the Safir-2 SLV to launch a satellite into earth orbit. That launch did not mark a fundamental technological breakthrough since the Safir first stage is based on the Shahab-3 missile. It did, however, demonstrate that Iran was making advances in the development of rocket technology.
  • b. Iran could develop in perhaps six to eight years a ballistic missile capable of delivering a 1,000 kg nuclear warhead to a range of 2,000 km. The nuclear-missile threat that the European-based components of the U.S. missile defense system are designed to defend against (IRBMs and ICBMs) will not materialize for some years, and probably not in the next decade, unless Iran receives substantial help from outside.
  • c. In April 2009 North Korea launched the Unha-2 three-stage missile with the ostensible aim of putting a satellite into earth orbit. In that respect the test was a failure, but the first and second stages appear to have worked successfully, marking a signifi cant advance in North Korea’s mastery of rocket technology. If North Korea were to transfer this technology to Iran, it could help Iran, especially by increasing its potential to build missiles with a much greater lift capability than the Shahab-3.
5.4 If Europe had a missile defense system, could that system protect Europe? The analysis given here shows that the missile defense system proposed for deployment in Europe has serious weaknesses and would not be able to provide a dependable defense against IRBMs and ICBMs launched from Iran, if such a threat were to emerge.

5.5 Does Europe face a military threat from Iran, and if so what is the nature of that threat? This report has focused on the technical rather than the political aspects of a possible threat. It has not assumed that Iran is planning to attack (or to acquire the capability to attack) Europe with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles; it is indeed diffi cult to imagine the circumstances in which Iran would do so. Iran does not at present possess that capability, nor is there specifi c evidence that it is seeking to acquire it. The nuclear missile threat from Iran to Europe is thus not imminent. At some point in the future Iran could acquire the capability to attack Europe with nuclear-armed IRBMs. It is not clear, however that the deployment of IRBMs would enhance Iran’s security. Large, visible, ground-launched missiles would be both provocative and vulnerable; mobile or silo-launched missiles would be more secure but would take much longer to develop, and their use would elicit a massive response.

5.6 The estimates of the likely timescales for Iranian programs could be upset if Iran were to receive substantial help from outside for its nuclear and missile programs. Close cooperation between the United States and Russia — and with other countries — would be one of the most eff ective ways of mitigating this danger.

U.S.-Russian relations

5.7 U.S.-Russian relations are no longer the axis on which world politics turns, as they were during the Cold War, but they are still of great importance. These are the two states with the largest number of nuclear weapons and they therefore play a key role in maintaining strategic stability and also exercise signifi cant infl uence on regional stability. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and the United States began to construct their relations on a new basis, free from the ideological confrontation of the Cold War. Leaders on both sides spoke of their desire to develop friendly and mutually advantageous relations in a spirit of partnership. The two countries have been cooperating in the fi ght against international terrorism and against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Both are taking part in the Six-Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear program, and they are working together in the eff ort to resolve regional confl icts in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

5.8 In recent years, however, relations between the two countries have taken a turn for the worse, casting doubt on the prospects for future cooperation. They reached a low point in August 2008 when the war in Georgia led to sharp rhetoric and a reassessment of relations on both sides. The contentious nature of the missile defense issue both refl ects the mistrust that has entered the relationship and in turn exacerbates that mistrust.

5.9 There is now the possibility of an improvement in U.S.-Russian relations, of a move away from the mutual disillusionment and recrimination of recent years. On April 1, 2009, President Medvedev and President Obama signed a joint statement in which they resolved “to work together to strengthen strategic stability, international security, and jointly meet contemporary global challenges, while also addressing disagreements openly and honestly in a spirit of mutual respect and acknowledgement of each other’s perspective.”

Recommendations

5.10 This report has concluded that there is at present no IRBM/ICBM threat from Iran and that such a threat, even if it were to emerge, is not imminent. Moreover, if such a threat were forthcoming, the proposed European missile defenses would not provide a dependable defense against it. It does not make sense, therefore, to proceed with deployment of the European missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

5.11 The more immediate danger comes from the military and political consequences that would follow if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons and the capacity to deliver them against targets in the Middle East. The urgent task, therefore, is for Russia and the United States (and other states) to work closely together to seek, by diplomatic and political means, a resolution of the crisis surrounding the Iranian nuclear program. Such cooperation could be helped if the issue of European missile defense were set aside.

5.12 If deployment of the European missile defense system were suspended, the United States and Russia could explore in a serious fashion the possibility of cooperation in ballistic missile defense, an issue also mentioned in the joint statement of the two presidents. A wide range of options could be explored, including the possibility of boost-phase missile defense. (See the Technical Addendum for a detailed discussion.)

5.13 There is scope for U.S.-Russian cooperation in the following areas:
  • a. Ensuring that the sanctions the Security Council has imposed on Iran are implemented strictly;
  • b. Strengthening the nuclear nonproliferation regime, and in particular the IAEA’s capacity to implement safeguards and enhance its verification procedures;
  • c. Strengthening the MTCR in order to restrict further the export of sensitive missile technologies;
  • d. Persuading Iran, by diplomatic means, to adopt measures that will reassure its neighbors (and the international community more generally) that its nuclear program is directed solely toward peaceful purposes.
  • e. Exploring the responses the two countries could take if Iran should expel the IAEA inspectors; and studying other paths by which Iran might seek to “break out” as a nuclear power and devising appropriate responses.
  • f. Investigating seriously the possibility of cooperation in missile defense.
5.14 The issues dealt with in this report — the potential nuclear-missile challenge from Iran and the role of missile defense in meeting that challenge — have in the past served to worsen U.S.-Russian relations. The analysis given in this paper points to a different possibility: that cooperation between the two countries could help to resolve these important and urgent issues and could play a role in changing the U.S.-Russian relationship for the better.

*** Source: http://docs.ewi.info/JTA.pdf




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